Welcome back for another fun week of poorly thought out wagers. While you’re sitting there reading this I’m locked in a very large warehouse counting a lot of stuff while trying to limit my dust intake. Good times. Anyway, I was able to find three of the world’s foremost football prognosticators to assist with this week’s picks.

Smooth Jimmy Apollo: I hereby declare the Lions Smooth Jimmy’s Lock of the Week. When you lose 90% of the time you’re bound to win 10% of the time.

Unnamed Sportscaster: I declare the Colts to be my Shoe-In of the Week. And I really wish that Jay Kogen had given me a name. I am so lonely.

Professor Frink: After analyzing millions of pieces of data, the Gamble Tron 2000 says the winner is… the Falcons, by 200 points?!

In all seriousness, I have a machine that tells me to pick the Falcons every week. It has become sentient, and I have come to fear for my well being. Enjoy the games, and please never listen to anyone’s gambling advice. People are stupid. Stupider than machines.

One week without the pewter and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers became the last team in the NFL to pick up their first win of the season (woohoo). This week they’ll undoubtedly cast aside their campy throwbacks, which will of course result in another familiar loss. Continue after the jump for this week’s NFL bets, plus a prediction for the weekend’s best sporting event (not soccer).

- Will the winner of the Patriots/Colts game represent the AFC in the 2010 Super Bowl XLIV? Yes +275

The Colts are currently +225 to win the AFC while the Patriots are +250 (Raiders are a bargain at +200,000). I’d rather just ride the winner of this game while taking advantage of the better payout. What could possibly go wrong? Everything, because this really is a terrible bet. Hooray!

- Will the New York Giants make the playoffs this Season? No -200

HAHAHAHAHA, fuck you, Giants. New York goes into their bye week at 5-4, and considering their schedule they’ll be lucky to finish with nine wins.

- New York Jets -7 vs. Jacksonville

The Jets defense should be re-energized following the bye week, and this time they’ll be the ones neutering a Jaguar.

- Buffalo +7 at Tennessee

In two games as a starter this season–both wins–Vince Young has gone 27/40 for 297 yards with one touchdown and zero interceptions. This week he goes up against a Buffalo team that has intercepted 15 passes on the year. Hell, Jairus Byrd alone has multiple interceptions in three straight games. That’s some crazy shit. The Bills defense should keep things relatively close.

- Miami -10 vs. Tampa Bay

Everything goes back to normal this week. For Tampa that means reverting to their pewter finery and losing miserably against the spread (2-6 this season).

- Dallas -3 at Green Bay

In the immortal words of our own Flubby, “Green Bay looks like dogshit right now.” So very true. Conversely, Dallas has been tearing shit up with four straight wins to their credit. The Cowboys haven’t gotten to the quarterback as often as they did last year, but all they need to get back on pace is one game against Aaron Rodgers and co.

That’s it for the football picks. Hate boxing? Fine. Enjoy the football games.

If you keep up with the world of boxing you know that this weekend’s most anticipated match-up isn’t the Pats-Colts game, it’s the Pacquiao-Cotto fight. Great fights come around from time to time, sometimes catching us completely by surprise. While this very well could (and should) be a truly great fight, it certainly shouldn’t sneak up on anybody. Seldom do you get to see two compelling action fighters who also happen to be two of the best boxers in the world sharing the ring, and that’s exactly what we’re going to get tomorrow night.

- Manny Pacquiao -275 vs. Miguel Cotto

It pains me a bit to take Pacquiao here. While I really do like Manny, I’m a huge fan of Cotto’s. But shit, I’m done doubting Pacquiao’s unconventional brilliance. Cotto is a warrior, and he’s going to test Manny with some crunching left hooks, but all told I think the naturally bigger man will begin to wear down (they agreed to fight at 145, two pounds below the welterweight limit) as the fight presses on.

Absurdly detailed prediction: Pacquiao wins a majority decision thanks in part to one-point deduction on Cotto for a borderline low blow earlier in the fight. Ringside observers will note that referee Kenny Bayless’ decision was likely influenced by Freddie Roach’s constant harping. After the announcement Pacquiao will say he’s willing to consider a rematch with a grateful Cotto, at which point Floyd Mayweather will storm into the ring demanding a date with Pacqiao (and a 55-45 split). Then Shane Mosley will declare that both men are scared of him all while ducking Paul Williams. Aaaaand scene.

Note: If you’re balking at the $55 price tag for the event (or you just want to save some money and drink beer) you should take note of this promotion from Tecate. For the cost of a (cheap) 12-pack you get a $25 rebate for your pay-per-view purchase. [via TQBR]

All lines via Bodog.

Now that I’m done poring over photoshops of Andy Reid’s face on some of the internet’s more iconic images I can return my focus to gambling. Sweet income-sapping gambling. You’ll help me get rid of all these nasty bills, won’t you? Yeah, you’ll treat me right this time. I know you will. Because if you don’t I’m going to beat you to death with a prosthetic limb and leave you to rot in a motel bathroom.

- New Orleans -13 vs. Carolina

The undefeated Saints may be 7-0, but their bid for true perfection went up in flames last week when they failed to cover the spread for the first time all season. What a bunch of useless fucking losers they are. I like them to get back on track this week against a Panthers team coming off of their first third win. It was nice to see Jake Delhomme go a whole week without an interception, now he can get back down to business.

- Atlanta -10 vs. Washington

Yep, it’s time to start betting against the Redskins. What’s that? Everybody else has been doing this since September? Very well then, carry on.

- Tennessee +4.5 at San Francisco

Sure the Titans have only won two games against the spread this year, but I hear that this Vince Young guy is a “winner.” That ought to be good for a few extra points, right?

- Ted Ginn Jr. Over 22½ (-150) yards per kickoff return

Hell, Rock Cartwright does better than that on an average day, and he has all the explosiveness of your average fart. Ginn should average 30 ypr with ease. Just don’t ask him to run an out route.

- Tony Romo Over 1 (+140) interception vs. Philadelphia

The payout (bet 100 to win 140) seems a bit light when you consider that Romo has only been picked off in two games so far this season (for a total of four interceptions). Regardless, The Eagles intercept more passes (14) than just about anybody in the league, so it’s still a pretty good bet. Plus you get to spend the whole game hoping for a Romo interception, which you were probably going to be doing anyway. Might as well make the big moment all that much more enjoyable when it does happen.

Enjoy the games, and please abstain from questioning the relative perfection of the cheerleaders pictured thereby ruining Sexy Friday for everyone.

It’s good to be back in the saddle after trading places with Ufford last week. Hopefully this week I can pick up right where I left off last time around. Today I’ll be picking three games with another three prop bets for good measure.

On to the picks!

- Minnesota +5 at Pittsburgh

Gotta go with the points here. The Steelers got by Cleveland without Aaron Smith, let’s see how they do against a team that isn’t entirely incompetent. Here’s what Ape had to say about this match-up after Smith went down, “When Smith got hurt at the end of 07, the run D pretty much went to shit, so going against Purple Jesus in two weeks should be fun.”

Of course the Vikings have a bit of an injury concern on their defense this week with Antoine Winfield out due to a foot injury. I was all set to jump on BEN’s total passing yards (o/u 270), but Bodog yanked it down in a hurry. What are you scared of, Mr. Bodog (aside from the United States government)?

You know what? Fuck it. Put me down for Over 45 points as well. Both teams have gone over the projected total in four consecutive games.

- New England -15.5 vs. Tampa Bay

Playing on a the loose sod at Wembley Stadium won’t help Tampa’s awful pass defense.

- Atlanta +4 at Dallas

Dallas sucks, this much we know, yet they’ve still been favored in every game they’ve played this year. Awesome.

- Total goals scored in Manchester United vs. Liverpool match vs. Tom Brady’s touchdown passes vs. Tampa Bay -.5

Fernando Torres (pictured above with the non-goat) should play this weekend, however Steven Gerrard will likely miss the match for Liverpool. On the other side of the ball Wayne Rooney is a major question mark with a calf injury. Considering the injuries to the team’s primary goal scorers and Tampa Bay’s pass defense I like Brady to win this one. I’m banking on a 2-1 Manchester win (although a 2-1 Liverpool win would be preferable) and a four touchdown performance from the goat cuddler.

- Total rushing yards for Cedric Benson vs. Chicago Bears: Over 74.5

Finally a chance for Benson to exact some sweet sweet revenge on the franchise that he believes attempted to blackball him from the league. Of course Chicago would also like to get some revenge on Benson for his varying levels of suck over a three year period.

- Who will be the last team to record a win in the 2009 NFL Regular Season?

St. Louis 6/5
Tampa Bay 13/10
Tennessee 18/5

The Bucs only have one game left on their schedule that looks remotely winnable (which of course means nothing), and that’s a road game against a Carolina team that already beat them at home. Meanwhile the Titans host the Bills in a few weeks while the Rams travel to Detroit next week. Even if only one of them manages to come out with a win in those match-ups, they play each other in a Week 14 showdown.

Hooray for rampant shitiness!

October is National Breast Cancer Awareness Month, and once again the NFL is working alongside the American Cancer Society to raise awareness about the disease. That means over the course of the next month you’re going to get an eyeful of more pink than Matt Leinart on spring break with various players sporting pink equipment because it looks cool and attracts attention they are deeply committed to this important cause.

While the pink infusion won’t have any direct impact on the games themselves, it will play a key roll in determining my favorite prop bet of the week.

On to the picks!

Baltimore +2 at New England

Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo will likely be out for Sunday’s game (although they both participated in practice this morning. That’s just the kind of advantage Baltimore’s offense needs to make them look more explosive than they really are.

New York Giants -9 at Kansas City

Because there is no good reason to not bet against Todd Haley.

New Orleans -7 vs. New York Jets

Both teams are 3-0 and perfect against the spread. I’ll give up the points to take the home team. Somehow I feel like I’ve let Rex down, and that makes me feel shitty.

Cincinnati -6 at Cleveland
San Diego +7 at Pittsburgh

Chad Ochocinco will be wearing his pink cleats while Marmalard will be wearing his lucky pink garter. HUH? WHAT? IT MAKES ME FEEL SEXY!

First coach to be fired during the 2009 regular season…

Jim Zorn 5/13
Jack Del Rio 7/2
John Fox 5/1
Dick Jauron 5/1
Gary Kubiak 8/1

NO ACTION! I personally can’t wait for Zorn’s ouster, but I’m not holding my breath on it happening before the season is over. Zorn is the overwhelming favorite to be the first to go even though there is no potential successor within the organization, even on an interim level.

Total regular season starts for Josh Freeman…

Over 1.5 (-125)

Raheem Morris knows that his team’s season is already in the tank, why not trot the rookie out for a few starts at some point? Also, who the fuck is Josh Johnson?

How many times will Deanna Favre be shown during the Monday Night Football broadcast…

Over 1.5 (-175)

SWEET JESUS! It’s like we’ve been blessed with a gift from above to make up for having to see Mrs. Favraro all night. I’d take the over on this bet if it were just Favre’s first game against Green Bay. Couple that with the kickoff of National Breast Cancer Awareness Month and it’s a god damn lock.

Enjoy the games, and if you happen to win some money you might consider donating some of it to help save future breasts. Breasts like these…

It’s an extra special week for my gambling habit, because I’m heading out to Vegas this afternoon. Somehow I’ve never been in Vegas during football season, so this is the weekend I finally rectify that situation. I’m not going with my group of righteous bros to show everyone how hard we throw down. Instead I’m going in my capacity as a blogger–and lover of both food and sports gambling–to check out the new Lagasse Stadium at the Palazzo.

A sports bar with it’s own built-in sports book? Yep, I will whore myself for that in a heartbeat. And now, on to the picks…

San Francisco +7 at Minnesota

The 49ers don’t fuck around on defense, and they have enough offense to keep things close against a Vikings team that has padded their record with wins over Charleston Southern and Troy. If PJ tries that bulldozer shit on Patrick Willis he might stay down for a while.

New Orleans -6 at Buffalo

Drew Brees is going to make Donte Whitner cry while former Saint Albert Connell breaks into his house.

Cincinnati +4.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Kiss the baby.

Oakland +1.5 vs. Denver

No real rationale here. I guess I just like betting against Denver for some reason. Start playing down to expectations, you fucks!

Dallas -9 vs. Carolina

Initially I wasn’t going to make a pick for this game. Then Drew alerted me to the following sentences. “This line is absolutely absurd. Five points too high.” (via)

Come on, Vegas, you’re making it too easy! Sweep the leg and so forth.

Now I happen to agree that the line is a bit inflated (sort of like every other spread involving the Cowboys), however Simmons’s hubris compels me to pick against him. Plus I’m pretty much convinced that Jerry will do anything to secure an easy win this week. So if DeAngelo Williams doesn’t come out after halftime you know it’s because Jerry installed a trap door in front of his locker that leads directly into the inescapable catacombs below.

That’s it for me. Enjoy the games, and try to not lose more than you can afford.

If you bet against my picks last week then you’re sitting pretty going into Week 2. And if you didn’t bet against my picks, I have to ask, why not? I tried to tell you, I’m f*cking terrible at this.

It’s so easy to be confident making picks on Friday morning. Everything looks so right that you may not stop to consider the possibility that the goddamn Patriots might actually wait until the LAST FUCKING MINUTES to stop playing with their dicks long enough to score some points.

So be forewarned, the more confident I seem, the more likely I am to be horribly mistaken. Even that delightful homosexual fellow at Deadspin waxed me like I was his chest hair. Choire was like the Andy Richter to my Wolf Blitzer.

That being said, this is the week that it all comes together! WOOOO, REDEMPTION!

On to the picks!

New York Jets +4 vs. New England

I’m all too eager to jump on the Jets bandwagon, especially after the Patriots fucked me out of my parlay last week. Is this a good rationale? No. But hell, Rex Ryan could be marching the French army into Russia this week and I’d still take the points.

Green Bay -9 vs. Cincinnati

Okay, I’m not going to bet on all of the teams that I feel dicked me out of money last week, but I can’t pass this one up. The Packers should cruise to 3-0 with easy wins over the Bengals and Rams before their huge Monday night clash with the Vikings, just as God Der Kommissar planned.

Washington -10 vs. St. Louis

Did you see my man JC driving the Redskins down the field in the meaningless waning minutes against the Giants? If that trend continues…Ayyyyy!

Pittsburgh -3 at Chicago

Oh God, I’ve almost certainly done something horribly wrong. This feels far too good to be true. It’s like Vegas is under the impression that the Steelers don’t have a running game. They’re fools! FOOLS, I TELLS YA!

Minnesota -10.5 at Detroit

Yeah, I’m never betting on the Lions again. Betting against them, now there’s an innovative strategy. I can’t wait to watch the Vikings build a 17-point fourth quarter lead. In fact, I can see it now…

Wait.

Crap.

Enjoy the games, everybody.

This week, we’re holding the third annual KSK Kares Kharity Drive to support Matt Ufford’s participation in Fight Gone Bad, which raises money for the Wounded Warrior Project and Athletes for a Cure. Please donate at Ufford’s fundraising page.

The NFL is back, and by some miracle there’s actually a little bit of money sitting in my neglected Bodog account. So what the hell, let’s indulge in another season of impulsive gambling!

Now before we get to this week’s bets, a quick refresher…

I am not a particularly gifted gambler, and I’m okay with that. Do not come here looking for expert advice when it comes to picking games. You may notice that I don’t keep track of my betting record. In part that’s because I’m not the kind of asshole who wants to wow you with my acumen.

No, I’m a different kind of asshole entirely (I eat veal almost exclusively).

The other reason I don’t keep track of my record is because I don’t really give a shit, so I fail to see why anyone else would. I do this because it’s fun, and that’s it. Although that’s not to say that if I happen to have a particularly successful week I won’t gloat like an asshole (with a belly full of osso bucco), because I will. Shit, that’s half of the fun.

And now, on to the snap judgments!

Cincinnati -4 vs. Denver

Taking the Bengals while giving more than a field goal takes a steady nerve and a pickled liver. Mostly I want to get in on the ground floor of the Denver implosion. Come on McD, don’t disappoint! I’m also legitimately excited to watch Chad Ochocinco beat Champ Bailey like a suspect in shackles.

Carolina +4 +3 vs. Philadelphia

Okay Jake, this is your chance to show everybody that you aren’t a total embarrassment. Philadelphia is going to be tough to handle this season, but it’s not all going to come together right away (especially defensively). Carolina should play them tight as long as Delhomme doesn’t gift them too many easy scores. In other words, I’m fucked.

Detroit +14 at New Orleans

And this is why you don’t make your picks after a few drinks. Hell, all it takes is a little bit of gin to make the Lions look like a cagey underdog. Who cares if they’re on the road against a team that beat them at home by five touchdowns last year? Who cares if they’re led by a rookie quarterback who has yet to show the ability to string together successive completions. THEY’RE SO DUE!

Baltimore -13 vs. Kansas City
New England -11 vs. Buffalo

Two veritable playoff locks take on two teams with awful offensive lines who just happened to have fired their respective offensive coordinators in the past two weeks. Oh yes, I like this quite a bit. As long as I don’t actually have to watch these two games. That’s right, the season barely fucking started and I’m already bitching about the quality of the games. Because I’m an asshole, you see.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aaron Maybe 24/1

Hey, why the fuck not? Maybin showed up late to camp looking like he could be dominant pass rusher right out of the gate. The odds are too good to pass up, and I probably would have just spent that $20 on pretzels anyways.

And with that, my Bodog account is empty. Maybe I’ll get lucky and win some money this week. More likely I’ll have to re-up with a fresh new bankroll for the ‘09 season this time next week.

Enjoy the first NFL Sunday of the year, and feel free to share your favorite picks for the weekend in the comment section. Oh and don’t forget to tell me I’m an idiot. That’s always fun.