Dear Vegas, STOP giving this man free money with such easy betting lines. Can’t you see he’s killing you?

Thank you! You shouldn’t have! IT’S LIKE VEGAS IS HANDING ME FREE MONEY! Did you honestly think those picks would be wrong? Stop. JUST STOP. Only a Pats fan has seen enough up-and-down quarterbacking to make these kind of ironclad picks.

Fun with Peter King coming later today.

Come, gather ’round, ye scalawags. The seas be quiet, the air is still, and it’s past time that Old Bill filled your head wi’ t’ truth of this fine ship, t’ privateer Grantland.

Yarrr, Old Bill were not always t’ captain o’ t’ swiftest ship on t’ seven seas. True, they call me t’ Dread Pirate Simmons now, but in me younger years, I were no more ‘n Barnacle Bill, a lowly barhand in t’ Bay Colony, scribblin’ out me thoughts and tossin’ them into t’ briny morass. But aye, those bottled messages traveled far and wide, they did. The voice of Barnacle Bill, the stories of me voyages, me misadventures wi’ Blackjacko and First Mate Sal, gained me entry into t’ fearsome Espanish arrrrrmada.

I were little more’n a deckhand back then, but me work ethic and tireless production gained me followers, aye. Sailors and surfers alike appreciate that I’m lowborn, like them. Me father were a simple gold prospector:

Aye, look at me. A tadpole I were back then, smooth-faced and two-eyed. ‘Twas afore I took a broken bottle t’ me porthole whilst celebratin’ t’ victory of t’ Red Stockings, back in aught-four. Worth it, says I.

Where were I? Aye, me rise troo t’ ranks.

I spake t’ the common hand, I did. For I knew e’ery young landlubber enjoys T’ Karrrrrate Kid, and even t’ lowest bilge rat knows t’ career of Ryan Reynolds, t’is not SEAWORTHY! His pictures be sinkin’ ships all. Yarrr, denied by none!

Wi’ wisdom an’ insights like that, I soon helmed t’ most fearsome corsair in the Espanish arrrrmada, stocked full from bow t’ stern wi’ t’ most bloodthirsty an’ loyal pyrates ye’d never survive meetin’. Arrr, me fame and notoriety struck fear in t’ empire, it did. Tired o’ fightin’ an’ pillagin’ alongside slow-witted landlubbers like DJ Gallows, I brokered a separation o’ sorts from Espain. Oh, sure, t’ queen gets her cut o’ t’ Grantland‘s gold, but this here be Simmons’s ship.

Me ship, me hand-picked crew o’ swaggerin’ pyrates o’ prose. Klosterman, t’ Viking Pussy. He’ll kill yer brain wi’ his trickery, fashionin’ stupid arguments about meanin’less shite. T’ mountainous Wright Thompson. He’ll drink ya under t’ table an’ stick ya wi’ t’ bill. An’ we got a diverse crew o’ young’uns we stole out t’ scuppers o’ jollyboats: t’ wench Baker, a well-spake Negro, an’ a jolly giant from t’ Northlands named Jonah. Out from t’ belly o’ t’ whale he came, says I.

Wi’ this fine seasoned crew, Old Bill barely needs t’ touch t’ rudder o’ Grantland, seein’ t’ way she steers herself. Most hours, I rest easy in me stateroom, workin’ — if ye call it that — on what I pray’ll be a 10,000 word retellin’ o’ t’ finest tale e’er put to screen:

Old salts tell the tale of an accursed lad. When the moon grows full, the wretch assumed the form and manner of the dreaded fenris–surfing the streets atop his father’s hardware store van, as dolphins play in the wake of a ship.

Yarrr, a fine start that is.

When we last left The People’s Starf-cker, Bill Simmons, he was patiently explaining to you, the little people, why Ryan Reynolds is NOT a movie star, despite Ryan Reynolds’ propensity for starring in, you know movies. Terrible movies, but movies nonetheless. But don’t worry. It didn’t turn into an “I hate Ryan Reynolds” rant. Ryan’s on Jimmy’s show a lot, and Bill would hate to upend that relationship. One day, Ryan may even be part of the Matthew McConaughey All Stars, and then perhaps he will be back in Bill’s good graces because he saw him on an airplane or something.

So what about this week? Will Bill take the NBA All Star analogy full circle? Is Bill still friends with William Goldman (SPOILER: HE IS!)? Does Bill still know more than you about everything? OH YES. In fact, join Bill as he solves the NBA lockout all on his own, only no one will listen to him, which is tragic because he is a GENIUS AND VICEPOPE OF COMMON SENSE AND GOD WHY DIDN’T YOU JUST LET HIM BE GM OF THE TIMBERWOLVES BECAUSE HE WOULD HAVE HAD A TEEN WOLF NIGHT AT TARGET CENTER EVERY TUESDAY. Read on…

Greed in its rawest form. That’s the National Football League’s lockout.

Correct.

Both sides…

Getting wronger…

…were like two billionaire drug cartels splitting up a massive cocaine shipment who got pissed off and just started shooting each other.

Yeah no, it’s nothing like that. But I’m glad you were able to talk about cocaine on an ESPN-financed website, because that’s crazy edgy.

Stubbornness in its rawest form. That’s the National Basketball Association’s lockout… You know what it reminds me of, actually?

Jeremy Renner’s career? Hilary Swank in “The Next Karate Kid”?

That scene in Dave…

Of course. It’s a “Dave”-themed column. That’s what showed up this week on Bill’s pop culture theme wheel, which includes the following spaces:

• Teen Wolf
• Teen Wolf
• Son of Teen Wolf
• Teen Wolf (MTV version)
• The Challenge
• The Wire
• Rounders
• (Mystery cliché!)

…after Bill Mitchell impersonator Dave Kovic (played by Kevin Kline) secretly takes over Mitchell’s presidency, when Dave gets his nerdy accountant buddy (played by Charles Grodin) to balance the budget so they can save the First Lady’s homeless program. They meet with the Cabinet, and Dave starts laying out Grodin’s ideas.

Ah yes, the “liberal wet dream” sequence.

What if we slashed this by $47 million? What if we cut this program, that’s another $50 million? Every decision is totally logical.

And if they can do it in a fictionalized movie which simplifies American budget issues to the point where Charles Grodin can figure it out, why can’t real life be the same way? DOES ANYONE HAVE AN ARGUMENT AGAINST THIS?

(NOTE: We regret to inform Kevin Kline that he is no longer a movie star. Sorry, bro. But you’re definitely a John Hurt All Star now, if that’s any consolation.)

Dave ends up finding the extra money in about six minutes, followed by the Cabinet applauding in disbelief. 2

2. Totally improbable scene … and yet, you feel like it’s totally probable as you’re watching it.

Unless you’re someone who understands that fiction differs from reality in that it isn’t actually real.

Why?

BECAUSE WILLIAM GOLDMAN TOLD ME IT WORKS.

Because Dave threw out everyone’s agendas and said, “This is extremely important to me, we’re not leaving this room until we figure it out.” Then he did it.

And that makes Dave the President of Common Sense. Why can’t America ALWAYS be run this way, with a superawesome guy who knows everything about everything (let’s call him, I dunno, Sill Bimmons) explaining patiently to all the bureaucrats and idiots how everything can easily be solved?

Let’s tackle the key (NBA lockout) issues and figure out how Dave (not David) would handle them.

Indeed. This whole thing could be solved in four seconds if we simply LISTENED TO THE MOVIES. I think you’d be surprised at how “The Contender” could help solve the whole nuclear fallout crisis in Japan.

In retrospect, making a huge deal about opening their books was the league’s smartest move of 2011, narrowly edging Stern’s forcing LeBron to throw the Finals so that Miami’s next season would be more compelling. 3

WHOA HEY WAIT THEY THREW THE FINALS?!

3. That was a joke.

Oh! Phew! Thank God there was a footnote there explaining that it was a joke! JOKES WORK BEST WHEN THEY ANNOUNCE THEMSELVES. I’M WRITING IN ALL CAPS AS A KIND OF IRONIC SHOUTING DEVICE. I HOPE YOU LIKE IT.

The Players Association examined all 30 teams and flagged some creative accounting, with Billy Hunter even telling ESPN.com’s Henry Abbott, “If you don’t count interest and depreciation, you already lop off $250 [million] of the 370 million dollars.”4

4. I have no idea what this means, and frankly, I’m not sure Hunter does, either.

Because he’s black and he’s in charge of something! Don’t you think it’s funny when black guys are in charge of managing basketball teams and coaching NFL teams? Doc Rivers clearly has no clue what the fuck he’s doing out there.

But once the sports blogs started stirring things up…

Oh those naughty sports blogs, which don’t have names and are really all pretty much the same site compiled in my AOL reader.

…that led to (ESPN.com’s cap consigliore) Larry Coon’s concluding the NBA’s number was flimsy at best.

And thank God we had The Coon on the case, or else those unverified SPORTS BLOG claims never would have been made official, except that they had actual team documents. Those bloggy bloggers! They’re like Mysterion trying to steal The Coon’s act!

What Dave would tell the owners:

“Look owners, I can’t really help you because I’m a fictional character in a 90’s comedy that was enjoyable at first, but is revealed to be a fairly trite liberal screed if you watch it enough times on HBO. I think perhaps you’d best leave this sort of negotiation to a real president, like Andrew Shepherd from The American President.”

Baseball stars make more money only because there’s no salary cap in baseball. I get it. But given the NBA is such a star-driven league, why wouldn’t it reward its best players a little more smartly? Why not redistribute NBA salaries so they resemble more of a Hollywood star system? For instance, look at Mission Impossible — Ghost Protocol:

NBA VP OF FINANCIALS: God dammit! Why didn’t anyone check Brad Bird’s salary demands before we went to the lockout stage?

Cruise is the “superstar,” Jeremy Renner is the secondary star…

But NOT a movie star.

…and Paula Patton, Simon Pegg, Ving Rhames and Josh Holloway were the supporting stars.

But NOT McConaughey All Stars. I really hope John Krasinski joins that group one day, but for now, he’s 48% Brad Cooper at best.

If the NBA was funding that movie, Cruise would make $25 million, Renner would make $15 million (even though he would have done it for one-third that)

Because he NOT a star and should be happy to settle for relative scraps at the bargaining table. Don’t you see how Jeremy Renner IS Boris Diaw? WHY AM I THE ONLY ONE WHO NOTICES THESE THINGS?!

Holloway would inexplicably make $9 million, then the other three would probably be overpaid something like $20 million combined. And that makes sense … how?

Don’t you see how my arbitrary and strained comparison between an NBA team and the production of a future shitty movie makes NO sense? What are you, fucking blind?

Did you follow that?

Are you still with me, little people? Because I know the whole Renner thing might have been way over your head, if you don’t know LA the way I do. Lotta people think Renner’s best work was in “The Town.” It wasn’t. It was in a small film called “The Hurt Locker,” which I saw but you probably didn’t because you don’t get Academy screeners.

All we did was redistribute our salary output a little: we pulled money from the middle class (where most salary mistakes are made, anyway) and gave it to the upper class; we made it harder for franchises to kill themselves with long-term deals; we made it easier for franchises to keep signature players; and we rewarded stars for sticking with their original teams. That doesn’t make sense … why?

This is the hallmark of pretty much any current Simmons column. The difference between Simmons and Peter King is that Peter King will spend 6,000 words giving no useful information of any kind. Whereas Simmons will spend 6,000 words giving you some useful information and then spend another 6,000 comparing it to something retarded like fucking MI:4, and then another 6,000 words expressing wonderment and marvel over his own conclusions. Did you follow that? Am I crazy or did that not make TOTAL SENSE?! HOW IS THIS NOT HAPPENING AS WE SPEAK? IT’S LIKE THE WORLD HATES GENIUSES.

16. I tried to leave the door open as wide as possible here for a snarky blogger to pick that entire section apart without trying to come up with a better alternative.

Oh, those snarky bloggers! They’re such little shits. I hate those people who go on the Internet and make snarky jokes! In other news, OMIGOD ISN’T JENNIFER ANISTON A DESPERATE WHORE THESE DAYS?!

Maybe any NBA franchise that allows an ex-player, a coach, a former scout, or basically anyone without genuine business and/or legal training to negotiate with some of the smartest legal/business minds in the entire world should be fined $10 million by the commissioner’s office.

So true. You NBA shitheads have spent way too long giving out basketball jobs to people who have a background in the game of basketball and often hire a lawyer to assist them with the actual negotiating process. You should be listening to the guy who’s imitating a fictional President from a Kevin Kline film. WHY AM I THE ONLY ONE SENSIBLE ENOUGH TO KNOW THIS SHIT?

Do you realize that agents laugh about this behind closed doors?

AGENT: God, wait until they actually let Simmons run the Nets… (jizzes in pants)

Issue No. 6: The NBA owners need to figure out revenue sharing before they can figure out a labor deal….

What Dave would tell the owners: “Let’s spend our energies on making sure the next season doesn’t get compromised or canceled. …You can’t create a revenue sharing plan before you know what you’re getting with a new labor deal. Makes no sense.”

ISSUE: You guys need revenue sharing right now.

FICSHUNAL PREZ SEZ: The fuck are you worrying about revenue sharing for? THAT MAKES NO SENSE. Haven’t you people looked at how they did the financials for “Cocktail”?!

Not to step on Dave’s toes…

Not to override the fictional president I’m using as a proxy for my own voice in a device that somehow makes me seem even MORE arrogant and heavy-handed…

but why haven’t we heard the following ideas or strategies even discussed?:

Why haven’t you implemented ANY of my ideas? THIS IS MADNESS!!!!!!

Canceling the WNBA after this season.

Because they’re WOMEN! And women are evil WHORES who will take your money and ruin “Hoosiers”!

I get the reasons for having the WNBA — my 6-year-old daughter loves basketball and is begging me to take her to a Sparks game (putting us squarely in the demo)…

THE WNBA: WHERE WHINY SPORTSWRITERS GRUDGINGLY TAKE THEIR CHILDREN.

The Charlotte Bobcats never should have happened. You know how I know this?

Because Charlotte is NOT a star city in the US. There are 24 star cities in the US. William Goldman argues that there’s only one (Boston).

If the Bobcats break their stadium lease and move somewhere else, they’d have to pay the city of Charlotte $150 million. So it would make no sense to move them, unless … you know …

/anticipates idea that makes complete sense, because when has Bill Simmons ever had a bad idea?

Jordan moves them to Chicago (where he still lives), plays in the United Center (where he has a giant statue), ropes Oprah into being a minority owner, then quickly becomes a well-run version of the Clippers to the Bulls’ version of the Lakers. [20]

That’s a horrible idea.

20. If you’re wondering why the Bulls would agree to this, here’s my response: Has having a second NBA team in town hurt the Lakers these past 30 years?

No, because that second team is the Clippers.

Not only would they cover the $150 million pretty quickly, but that would give the league six teams in the three biggest TV markets. And that’s a bad thing … why?

And that doesn’t make perfect sense… how?

And that’s not a brilliant idea… because?

And everything I say ought not to be chiseled onto fucking stone tablets… why?

21. Jerry Reinsdorf just collapsed in front of his computer.

MY IDEA IS SO FUCKING GOOD IT JUST KILLED A MAN.

22. I’ve lived in Los Angeles for 8 1/2 years.

I know this town inside and out. Too bad no one here has my FACKIN’ KICKASS BRAND OF HAUGHTY BAWSTON ATTITUDE! LAKAHS AHHH FAGS!!!!

I’m re-pitching my 2007 idea for the Entertaining As Hell Tournament… Imagine if we did it last year and landed a Friday Final Four of the Grizzlies, Clippers, Pacers and (in a feel-good story) the upstart Cavaliers. Would you have watched that night?

God, no.

Of course you would have!

Wait, I said “no,” god dammit.

You definitely would have watched the Entertaining As Hell Tournament presented by Klondike.

STOP TELLING ME I’D DO THINGS I WOULDN’T DO.

Why won’t the NBA take a chance like this? I have no idea.

Here’s what we do: Anytime someone hits a shot in the three-point contest, we cut off the head of a WNBA player and jizz in her eye. TELL ME YOU WOULDN’T WATCH THIS. Why the fuck is the NBA not even CONSIDERING this?! I’m giving you people gold and what do I get for it? I GIVE UP ON SPORTS.

What Dave would tell the owners: “What he said.”

MY FICTIONAL PRESIDENT DOPPELGANGER AGREES WITH ME. WHAT ELSE COULD YOU POSSIBLY NEED TO KNOW?!

Bringing this full circle:

It call comes back to Ryan Reynolds, America.

Why does the NBA’s brain trust steadfastly refuse to brainstorm radical ideas…

MY ideas!

on par with the ones I just mentioned…

Which are AWESOME.

or consider contraction, or really, do anything beyond whining about the $340 million?

I bet they hired some SNARKY SNARK BLOGGER to pick apart the whole plan! These bloggers are just like the nerdy nerd kid who likes Coen Brothers films and has a grudge against the cool and popular kids, or so I tell the people I send to comment at blogs!

As for us? We might lose a season because of their obstinance, which means we’ll miss out on Year 2 of “Yes We Did!”, Boston’s last run with Garnett, Pierce and Allen…

NOOOOOOO DON’T BREAK UP THE FACKIN’ C’S! THEY AHHH OW-AH BASKETBALL BRUINS!

…Duncan’s last decent Spurs season, Kobe’s trying to stay on top (and doing anything to do so), Durant and Westbrook continuing their Stringer/Avon plot…

I watch The Wire because I have good taste!

Sadly, this mess won’t end like the movie Dave did, with Dave Kovic fixing the country, turning things over to the vice-president and walking off into the sunset.

Sadly, the NBA refuses to listen to a political movie that has nothing to do with basketball or take orders from a fictional character (voiced by me) to solve this lockout. AM I MISSING SOMETHING? IS THERE ANYTHING ABOUT THIS PLAN THAT WOULD FAIL?

As you fair readers know, we usually spend the beginning of every week here at KSK doing our whole lofty Fun With Peter King business. But because Peter King is on vacation for the next FOUR weeks (I sure hope he got to do nothing, like he said he did! No one has earned it more!), and because he left any number of informative and competent people to replace him over at SI.com in the interim, we’re gonna have to spend the next few Mondays (or, in this case, Tuesdays) finding new people to anally fisk. So I guess we should probably look around for someone who rivals Peter in terms of gushing about personal access and being a relatively easy target… OOOH! OOH I GOT IT! BILL SIMMONS HAS A FEW THOUGHTS ABOUT RYAN REYNOLDS! That’ll do!

Anyway, when we last left Bill, he was starting up the Billington Post and explaining to you how he hoped the beginning of his new website rivaled the momentousness of that one time Coldplay played on Jimmy Kimmel Live. And who can forget that seminal occasion? It’s like TV history and music history had gloppy wet sex with one another and gave birth to a NEW kind of history! He also started a reality television league, because reality television stars are so stoopid! Look at how dumb they are! Isn’t it funny when I point out how dumb they are? Anyway, while we were away last week, Simmons took it upon himself to explain Hollywood to you, the outsider. Because he’s just like you. He’s the voice of the fan, if the fan was immensely wealthy, lived in Los Angeles, had absolutely NO sense of self-deprecation, and was a complete prick. Read on…

In Hollywood, (the) Mo Williams dilemma hangs over everything.

So true. Whenever I see a really shitty Hollywood movie, I always hope that someone will explain to me how that shitty movie can be likened to a shitty basketball team. Because comparing sports to pop culture all the time totally enriches the two. You there! Mr. Sports Fan! I know you think movies are gay, but what if I were to explain movies to you strictly in sportsy terms? I THINK YOU AND I COULD TALK ABOUT KATE HUDSON A LITTLE BIT MORE IF I MADE A CORRELATION BETWEEN HER AND JAMAL CRAWFORD.

We arrived to a point in which the following two facts are indisputable.

NO ONE WILL DENY THEM.

Fact: People believe Will Smith is the world’s biggest movie star (even though he doesn’t make great movies).

Fact: People believe Ryan Reynolds is a movie star (even though he isn’t).

So true. Ryan Reynolds? Not a movie star. Sure, he’s rich, and handsome, and stars in MOVIES, and has sex with very famous women. But is he a movie star, according to Bill Simmons’ arbitrary metrics for a term that has any number of definitions depending upon whom you ask? Don’t be such a fool.

Let’s tackle Reynolds first.

Indeed. Let’s do that. I won’t rest until you’ve gotten to the bottom of the Reynolds enigma.

When Green Lantern badly underperformed last weekend, it shouldn’t have been surprising, because Reynolds isn’t a movie star (despite Hollywood’s best efforts to convince us otherwise).

I’m pretty sure the movie tanked because it was awful.

You know how I know this?

BECAUSE I LIVE IN LOS ANGELES NOW AND I UNDERSTAND “THE INDUSTRY,” WHICH IS WHAT WE IN THE INDUSTRY CALL THE INDUSTRY.

We just spent the past 10 years compiling evidence that said, emphatically, “Ryan Reynolds can’t carry a bad movie.” Or, really, any movie.

Okay. Cool. Thank God we’ve established that. I can finally rest now that I know Ryan Reynolds isn’t a 40% legit movie star. Now to move on to our next pressing issue: DO BEAVERS HAVE DREAMS?!

Don’t worry, this won’t turn into an “I hate Ryan Reynolds” rant.

Don’t worry, gang. I’m not here to actually burn bridges with someone I might run into at the Soho House.

I actually like Ryan Reynolds.

RYAN REYNOLDS: Phew! Good thing the sports columnist with an incredibly inflated sense of self-worth likes me!

/goes back to fucking hot women on top of a pile of hundred dollar bills

This isn’t his fault. Other than his dreadful “Amityville Horror” remake, I can’t remember watching a Reynolds movie and thinking it failed specifically because of him (you know, the opposite of how I feel during every Luke Wilson movie).

O HO HO!!!! Burrrrrned ya, Luke Wilson! Way to completely ruin movies like “Old School” and “Bottle Rocket,” which were actually good movies that you were perfectly fine in.

Compared to his peers in the secretly valuable Matthew McConaughey All-Stars — a.k.a. guys who star in movies that are guaranteed to end up showing on an airplane, whether it’s a generic action romp, a gross-out comedy that’s neither gross nor funny, or any type of romantic comedy involving a career-driven woman who lies to everyone around her to find herself a man…

NOTE: All movies are shown on airplanes.

I would take Reynolds over Ashton Kutcher, Patrick Dempsey and Aaron Eckhart.

Seriously, what the fuck are we even talking about at this point? I feel like I’m in the middle of “Inception” (which Ellen Page TOTALLY ruined, by the way, because women ruin movies with their massive dripping vaginas) and someone made up a bunch of random rules that make no goddamn sense.

He’s the most versatile half-decent actor out there, and I swear that wasn’t a backhanded compliment.

Just to reiterate: Ryan, brah, we can still TOTALLY hang out at Soho House.

3.

OOH FOOTNOTE! THE EXTRA INNINGS OF SHITTY WRITING!

I hope John Krasinski doesn’t end up in this group.

So true. Allow me for a second to also condescend to famous people so that I sound like the fucking LORD OF HOLLYWOOD. People, I’m very much concerned about Steve Carell’s ability to hold up a big screen comedy on the heels of leaving “The Office”. After all, we all know that show ran on NARD DOG fumes for the past few years. Also, check Carell’s IMDB. NOT A MOVIE STAR.

I feel like he’s slightly better than that.

Just a little, but not by much. Call it 25.8% better. My analysis of the movie starness of movie stars is IRONCLAD.

By the way, Vegas won’t even take odds on Bradley Cooper ending up on this list within two years.

Because then Cousin Sal and I would gamble on it and we would beat Vegas because WE KNOW HOLLYWOOD! What are the odds that Brad Cooper ends up doing Skinemax porn with that one chick from “The Challenge” VEGAS AIN’T LETTING US TOUCH THAT! THAT’S FREE MONEY!

Reynolds has three things going for him:

1. He’s friends with my boy, Seth Meyers!
2. He understands the importance of the piano riff on “Clocks”!
3. He secretly thinks Kobe Bryant is a fag! NICE!

I’d compare the “leading man” position to the NFL’s quarterback position — we need 32 starting QB’s every year regardless of whether we actually have 32 good ones, just like we need 40 to 45 leading men every year regardless of whether have 40 to 45 good ones. That makes Reynolds someone like Alex Smith…

My brain is dying.

I had an argument recently with my friend Lewis about whether Jim Carrey was still a movie star. Lewis said, adamantly, no effing way. I disagreed.

Will I tell my grandkids I once saw a Jim Carrey movie? Yes. VERDICT: Movie Star. My judging criteria are unassailable.

The truth is, most people don’t know how to define a “movie star.”

So true. This is because they don’t live in Hollywood and understand the way Hollywood works, as would a sportswriter who spent a grand total of 18 months working on a TV show. I feel bad for the little people, really. They walk through life thinking Ryan Reynolds is a movie star because he stars in movies, when they don’t really understand the true machinations behind it all. IF ONLY I COULD SHOW THEM HOW IT ALL COMES BACK TO ROBERT HORRY.

Take Tobey Maguire:

Yes. Let’s TACKLE Tobey Maguire. Don’t you think he’s just like Trent Dilfer?!

Unless his next movie has “Spider-Man” in the title, are people going out of their way to see it? Of course not. That means he’s not a movie star.

Except that he’s rich and famous and HOLY SHIT WHAT DOES ANY OF THIS EVEN MEAN?

Listen folks, you want a decent roundup of why Hollywood makes terrible movies, just read this. Trust me.

Jamie Foxx won an Oscar for Ray, but that didn’t make him a movie star; he’s just a famous person who acts and sings.

AND STARS IN MOVIES.

Bruce Willis can’t be a movie star anymore unless the words “Die” and “Hard” are involved.

Honestly, he may as well sell insurance at this point.

And yet, if you asked the average person if Carrey, Maguire, Foxx and Willis were movie stars, they would invariably say yes.

This is the problem with Americans. You see, they lack Bill Simmons’ ability to SEE Hollywood, not unlike how Rajon Rondo can see the floor at a Celtics game. This is why Hollywood shouldn’t be allowed to cast anyone in any film without first consulting a Blue Ribbon Panel of Hollywood Experts consisting of Bill, Chuck Klosterman, and the giant anus in which both men reside and share coffee with one another.

I believe there are 24 male movie stars right now…

I read the stat in “Outliers”!

…a funny number…

Interesting. My own randomly generated number has meaning BEYOND the value to which I assigned it! Watch!

…since that takes the NBA All-Star analogy full circle.

So true. Ryan Reynolds IS Emaka Okafor. How much more clear can it be?

But here’s the list: Smith and Leo;

I CALL HIM LEO BECAUSE WE ATE AT SPAGO TOGETHER.

Depp and Cruise; Clooney, Damon and Pitt; Downey and Bale; Hanks and Denzel; Stiller and Sandler; Crowe and Bridges; Carell, Rogen, Ferrell and Galifianakis; Wahlberg and Affleck; Gyllenhall (it kills me to put him on here, but there’s just no way to avoid it);

KILLS him. Can’t you see it’s tearing him apart to include Jake on this arbitrary list? He’s so clearly a movie star, unlike that Jamie Foxx.

Justin Timberlake (who became a movie star simply by being so famous that he brainwashed us); and amazingly, Kevin James. All of them can open any movie in their wheelhouse that’s half-decent; if it’s a well-reviewed movie, even better.

So true. Who doesn’t remember the box office slayings perpetrated by Gyllenhaal’s twin bill of “Love & Other Drugs” and “Prince of Persia”?

(NOTE: Just kidding. I’ve been told by Bill that “Love & Other Drugs” and “Prince of Persia” aren’t actually movies.)

Look, I like Jeremy Renner, Josh Brolin, James Franco and Jesse Eisenberg.

Look, I’m not TRYING to be a smarmy asshole here.

I really like Paul Rudd.

Again Paul, if you ever want to meet up with me and Ryan at Soho House, CALL. Or email my AOL account. Hip Hollywooders always use the AOL.

None of them are not movie stars…

Except that they all star in movies.

… at least not yet.

Not movie stars… MAYBE.

And neither is Ryan Reynolds. But you knew that already.

Because Bill Simmons told you so! Don’t you feel enlightened?!

None other than the great William Goldman disagrees with me.

OMIGOD WILLIAM GOLDMAN WILLIAM GOLDMAN WILLIAM GOLDMAN I KNOW WILLIAM GOLDMAN AND HE KNOWS ME AND TOGETHER WE KNOW ALL THE SECRETS OF THE INDUSTRY!

Goldman once wrote that, in Hollywood, nobody knows anything. He was wrong.

BECAUSE I KNOW EVERYTHING.

If you think Pursuit of Happyness or Ali is Will Smith’s defining performance, you would be wrong.

I would? But he was so winning in each!

It’s Six Degrees of Separation.

WHA WHA WHA??!!!!! Are you telling me that Will Smith once gave a lauded performance as a gay con man in an acclaimed independent movie? MIND ASPLODE. I didn’t know that AT ALL. Only a true sports fan would be able to see that kind of moment. It’s like when Larry Bird was playing in his rookie year and GAHHHHH KILL IT WITH A KNIFE.

Everything is on display: his once-in-a-generation charisma, his acting chops, his sense of humor, his sense of the moment … and, most of all, his self-awareness.

Of which you have none.

He made Six Degrees to prove he wasn’t just a rapper-turned-sitcom-star, that he could actually act, that he cared about his craft. You know, as long as he didn’t have to kiss another dude. It was a chance, but a calculated one. He never took another one. Now he’s our one and only movie star, according to William Goldman.

WHO I AM FRIENDS WITH! I RETROACTIVELY CO-WROTE THE PRINCESS BRIDE, WHICH IS A TOTALLY GAY MOVIE IF YOU’RE A SPORTS FAN GRRRRR POWER!

There’s a lesson here.

The lesson? Please eat shit and die.

We get a lot of requests every week to do FJM-style breakdowns of Bill Simmons’ columns. We largely avoid this because A) Peter King is more fun to poke fun at, B) It takes about seven seconds before Simmons trolls pop into the post and tell you what a HATURRRRRR you are, C) We have Tommy from Quinzee around to serve as proxy for all our Simmons mocking.

So usually we resist. But Holy God, did you SEE this column? Sweet buttermilk titties, it’s terrible. It’s awful. It’s the smuggest smug that’s ever smugged. And it deserves your unbridled scorn in full. Let’s begin…

You may not have noticed. You may not have cared. Hell, you may have thought it was a weekly typo. But through the first six weeks of the 2009 NFL season, your buddy Simmons was enjoying a career year with his picks column.

I can’t tell you how happy this made me.

Good for you. Now why in the living FUCK do I care? ZOMG! Someone who likes gambling on sports is on a decent run! That almost makes up for the fivefold number of losing runs they’ve had! IT’S GAMBLING SCIENCE!

I spend more time on this column than you can possibly imagine. It takes me three-and-a-half days to write. I watch every minute of football on Sunday and Monday.

Get the fuck out. You watch football on Sunday and Monday? NO ONE ELSE COULD POSSIBLY BE THAT HARDCORE.

I scour newspapers and TV shows searching for tidbits.

Like that time the Boston Globe published the full rosters of every team. You can’t get that kind of info anywhere else.

I spend two full days writing material, making picks and flipping games around every which way. Three years ago, I even turned my office into a man cave and added four televisions just so I could watch as much football as possible.

Oh, do you not have four TV’s in your man cave? Are you not able to watch the games with Tony Dungy on the Football Night in America set? Oh, then you, poor commoner, simply can’t see the game the way Bill does.

Why did this mean so much? First, I am overcompetitive to a fault. Second, I have been writing this column for 13 years and always felt like there was some magical formula that kept eluding me; if I kept plugging away, eventually everything would make sense.

Stop. Stop immediately. What are you, six?

THERE MUST BE A FORMULA. If I simply find the magic key hidden in a secreted portal in the Pinewood Forest, ALL SHALL BE REVEALED. Take these runes, good sir. Take these runes and place them in a hat. Stare into that hat and soon, the magic formula for picking football games that are inherently unpredictable will come to you, and WE SHALL ALL BE RICH. RICH AS MORMONS.

And third, it’s humiliating to have a lousy picks record in a nationally read column. During the 2006 and 2007 seasons, you might even remember the Sports Gal finishing with a better record than me, and she only knows Brett Favre as the dude from “There’s Something About Mary.” That degradation kicked me into another gear. I had to do better. Things turned last year and finally took off this season. Again, 58-32 through six weeks.

And now you’ll never lose again! EVER! You’ve cracked the code!

Was it just blind luck? Not exactly.

No. Exactly. It was luck.

You might remember my “Simbotics” column from 2004, when I tried to determine a science for picking games in the first few weeks. Bookies are terrified of that stretch for this reason: There’s no ironclad way to distinguish good teams from the bad teams yet. Check out these five lines from Week 2 in 2009.

Those five lines swung by a combined 40 points. Yowza. This is why bookies hate the first few weeks.

That’s great insight there, until you realize that bookies simply set the line according to how the public bets, and the general public knows exactly as much about how the season will play out as bookies do. So, if everyone loved the Broncos in Week 2, the line on the Broncos would have been higher to get even betting. WHEE! Oh, but Bill KNEW the Broncos would be good, which makes him SMAHHHHTAH than Vegas! Except for when he picked the Rams to be his sleeper team that one year and was wrong. Or when he picked Atlanta to be his sleeper team one year and was also wrong.

But hey, let’s pause here for the Miller Lite Great Call of the Week…

It’s time for the Miller Lite Call of The Week, where I either praise a call I loved or defend a call thought to be previously indefensible.

This week, I’m giving it to myself…

Jesus fucking Christ.

…for a prediction that hasn’t come true yet … but definitely will.

But didn’t.

You already know how great the “Giants-Eagles in the day, Yanks-Phils Game 4 at night” scenario on Sunday is… Anyway, is there any doubt — I mean, ANY? — that whatever happens in the first game will determine the second game?

Yes, there is doubt, because they are separate sporting events that have nothing to fucking do with one another. Hence, the Eagles won, and the Phillies lost. HOW CAN THIS BE? THE COSMIC FORCE THAT BINDS US ALL TOGETHER HAS BEEN BROKEN FOREVERMORE.

Lock it down.

And then unlock it, because that prediction was both stupid and wrong. Back to the column…

My picks record took off only because I correctly assessed the values of those 11 teams, save for one or two misfires. (The Broncos and Saints alone finished 11-0 against the spread in those first six weeks.) Of course, had I been wrong about half of those teams, or more than half of those teams, I would have gotten crushed. Simbotics rewards people who are stubborn and lucky. This year, I got lucky.

So your picks panned out because of luck. Glad you established that mere paragraphs after saying it had nothing to do with luck.

By Week 7 (last weekend), Simbotics had played out, the lines had adjusted and I was on my own. This made me nervous. With so many bad 2009 teams, Vegas was jacking the lines to absurd heights hoping to rope in some underdog money. This made me more nervous. But you know what made me the most nervous? Dozens of readers sending me e-mails that looked something like this:

“Awesome job with the picks this year! I’m riding you this weekend.”

MY READERS THINK I’M AWESOME AND WANT TO BE JUST LIKE ME!

Here’s what I wanted to send back: “No! No! Don’t ride me! Get off! GET OFF! RIGHT NOW!”

I’m too awesome for you! Stay away! I have four TV’s in my man cave and you don’t!

I call this the Ace Mush Corollary. During Sunday football, our friend Ace has a few established habits.

Ace, if you didn’t know, is Adam Carolla. Because Bill has dozens of awesome famous friends with even awesomer nicknames. Hey, have you guys met my buddy Pussyroper? He’s the BEST. (HINT: He’s actually Vincent Kartheiser!)

You can count on him to kill it in this scenario: a few of us deciding to wager on the same team in a late game — say, the Patriots — followed by Ace overhearing this action, then saying to everyone’s chagrin, “Yeah, yeah, I like the Patriots, too, I think I want in on that one.” Every time it happens, you can actually SEE the money flying away. It’s unbelievable. He’s the mush of mushes. We have seriously considered pretending to bet Team A but really taking Team B, then hoping Ace will “join us” on Team A for a classic reverse jinx.

Here’s the point: Last weekend, some of my bad-luck readers combined to pull an Ace Mush on me.

You see, fair reader? It’s YOUR fault that Bill’s prescient picks didn’t come to pass. Please stop ruining his expertise by getting your bad luck herpes on him.

I was doing a little too well.

I’m clearly WAYYYY too awesome.

And they were sitting there going, “Yeah, yeah, Simmons is doing good, I think I want in on his picks this week.” By doing nothing other than successfully executing my job, I became aligned with people who had such bad luck gambling that they said to themselves, “This week, I’m going to trust Bill Simmons, a guy who lost to his wife in 2006 and 2007.”

I’m innocent in all this! I was just sitting there, being my usual genius self, when these dickhead readers had to come in and mooch off me! YOU’VE RUINED THE MAGIC FORMULA, WHICH IS ADMITTEDLY BASED ON SHEER LUCK.

It’s a shame, seeing as how Bill finally figured out the foolproof way to bet on NFL games and totally isn’t going to lose to his wife in picks this year, especially since he no longer publishes his wife’s picks.

In a related story, I suffered my most frustrating week of the season. The Texans blew a 21-0 lead at home because they couldn’t stop Alex Smith and Vernon Davis — that’s right, Alex Smith and Vernon Davis!!!!! — settling for an unsatisfying push. The Vikings choked away a winnable game in Pittsburgh by giving the Steelers’ defense two touchdowns, including a spread-covering one off a deflected screen pass as Minnesota drove for the winning score with three minutes to play. And Miami blew a 24-3 lead to New Orleans, then inexplicably stopped pounding the ball in the fourth and let its lousy receivers decide the game (and they did).

That’s how 9-4 becomes 6-6-1. Bad luck.

It’s also how 9-4 became 9-4 to begin with. But no, let’s go by your theory that your magic formula, which did not involve luck, was helped by luck, and then ruined by the contagious bad luck of others. You know what’s not lucky? HOW INCREDIBLY KNOWLEDGABLE BILL SIMMONS IS ABOUT THE GAME OF FOOTBALL. Even though the Steelers earned both those defensive touchdowns by stripping Favre on the first one and executing flawless return blocking for both scores. Stop making Bill look bad, Steelers, and readers, and everyone who doesn’t make the outcome of games play out the way they ought to! THE PICKS WERE RIGHT! THE GAME IS FLAWED! LUCK SHOULD STOP PROVING ME WRONG.

Anyway, here’s my request for the next few weeks: If you have bad luck, stay away from “borrowing” my 2009 picks.

They’re mine! I only publish them so that you may admire them!

Don’t be the cooler of my column. Let me see if I can keep banging out 10-4 and 11-5 marks every week without you attaching a black cat to my ankles. If you have bad luck and are joining forces with me, that means other people with bad luck are doing the same. How do you think that’s turning out for all of us? Badly. Poorly. Tragically. It wasn’t that I lost on Brett Favre’s line-drive screen pass that ricocheted off Chester Taylor’s face at 200 mph last week, or the fact that Miami’s receivers dropped so many balls against the Saints that I tweeted, “Ted Ginn Jr. finally gives us the answer for what it would be like if someone played WR without arms.” It’s that I absolutely knew dopey things like that would submarine my Week 7. And I knew this because I knew my readers were pulling an Ace Mush on me.

Now, you might think this is the douchiest paragraph ever written. But don’t worry, people. You see, Bill is only JOKING with this whole business. He has a very active sense of humor. He’s only ACTING like a pompous ass, and that’s funny!

Stay away from my Week 8 quick picks. Hands off. Please don’t let them sway you in any way. Thank you. Here they are.

Ooooh! Let’s steal them anyway! THEY’RE TOO GOOD TO RESIST!

Broncos (+3.5) over RAVENS

Wrong.

BILLS (+3.5) over Texans

Wrong.

Browns (+13) over BEARS

Wrong.

Dolphins (+3) over JETS

Correct.

COLTS (-12.5) over Niners

Wrong.

COWBOYS (-9.5) over Seahawks

Hate laying this many points with Dallas

Correct, and yet still kind of wrong.

Rams (+3.5) over LIONS

Correct.

Giants (-1) over EAGLES

Wrong.

CHARGERS (-16.5) over Raiders

Wrong.

Jags (+3) over TITANS

Wrong.

CARDINALS (-10) over Panthers

Wrong.

SAINTS (-11) over Falcons

Wrong. But it was a garbage cover! Points shouldn’t count if you’re trying to come back!

Vikings (+3) over PACKERS

Correct. That’s a 4-9 record for the week. GASP! You BET just like Bill, didn’t you? Admit it! You ruined EVERYTHING. It’s just bad luck for Bill you had to go do that. Nothing but bad luck that in no way dilutes his awesomeness. I bet his bookie returns that money out of respect.